Comercio Internacional
[Artículos ] The effects of integration agreements in Western Hemisphere trade, 1970–2014
CAJAS G. John; MARTÍN M. Fernando; MORÁN C. Gabriel - The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 25: 5, 724-756. 2016
The paper analyzes the effects of four regional integration agreements (Common Market of the South [MERCOSUR], Andean Community [ANCOM], Central American Common Market [CACM] and North America Free Trade Agreement [NAFTA]) on bilateral trade in 19 countries from the Western Hemisphere for the period 1970–2014. For this purpose we estimate different gravity models to control for trade creation and diversion, export diversification and intra-industry trade using OLS log-linearized gravity model and Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood panel data estimators that allow controlling for zero-value trade flows. We find trade creation for ANCOM, MERCOSUR and CACM and trade diversion for NAFTA and MERCOSUR countries. Export diversification negatively affects bilateral trade in all American agreements, while intra-industry trade has contributed to trade expansion in ANCOM and the opposite for NAFTA, MERCOSUR and CACM. Global supply chains may help us explain these results. Finally, we find anticipatory effects on trade several years before the signing of the agreements, but only NAFTA countries seem to be natural trading partners in the region while the rest of Latin American regional agreements have not resulted in a comprehensive, profound and consolidated common market.
Línea de investigación: Comercio Internacional
[Artículos ] Center-Periphery Structures and Dependency: A Theoretical and Methodological Proposal.
Cajas Guijarro J., W.A. Perez-Oviedo - Disponible en SSRN 3488904, 2019
Capitalist world-economy is composed of center-periphery structures where central countries exercise a higher structural power than the periphery. In order to gain a better theoretical and empirical understanding of this asymmetry of power, this paper proposes a brief theoretical discussion and interpretation of some intuitions coming from the works of Cardoso and Faletto (1979) and Marini (1973). Taking those intuitions as theoretical motivation, the paper proposes a methodology focused on the empirical evaluation of the existence of centers, sub-centers, semi-peripheral and peripheral countries which “minimize” the structural power of the periphery. The methodology is applied to world trade networks composed of 100 countries from 1992 to 2017 for which it has been possible to build multiple maps that describe the distribution of influence among countries and regions. The main result of this application is the evidence found in favor of the existence of central-peripheral structures as well as evidence on how the United States and China are struggling to consolidate their influence over multiple peripheral regions of the world.
Línea de investigación: Comercio Internacional
[Artículos ] La integración latinoamericana desde un enfoque de redes.
Pérez W, Cajas J, Vallejo M.C. - Cuadernos del CENDES 35-98 (39-72).
Este artículo evalúa la posición de Latinoamérica en la red de comercio mundial entre 1992 y 2015, incluidas sus conexiones internas y con el resto del mundo. Esta evaluación confirma que dichos países constituyen una periferia comercial, es decir, muestran una alta dependencia de los flujos comerciales de los países centrales, especialmente Estados Unidos y China. Brasil y México sirven como subcentros: el primero para Sudamérica y el segundo para Centroamérica y el Caribe. A su vez, los esfuerzos de integración latinoamericanos (AP, Unasur, Alba, Caricom, Mercosur) muestran diferentes trayectorias en su cohesión, su equilibrio de comercio industrial intragrupo y en sus exportaciones primarias. Del estudio de las interrelaciones entre estas variables, se extraen conclusiones sobre el potencial de la integración regional.
Línea de investigación: Comercio Internacional
[Artículos ] Midiendo la centralidad de los países y la integración comercial desde una perspectiva de red.
Pérez W, Cajas J. - Revista de métodos cuantitativos para la economía y la empresa - 26 (146–174).
Al revisar los estudios del comercio internacional desde un enfoque de redes, encontramos una falta de contenido económico en los indicadores utilizados. Ante tal carencia, el presente artículo porpone una alternativa metodológica para describir al comercio como red, pero enfatizando el sentido económico. Dicha metodología propone: estimar la centralidad de los países en el comercio brindando resultados económicamente interpretables; contruir redes y mapas de estructura de comercio como alternativa visual a las redes de comercio convencionales; y estimar indicadores para evaluar la fortaleza de la integración comercial de grupos de países. Al aplicar tal metodología a información de 145 países entre 1992 y 2015, se logra: identificar los posibles países más influyentes en el comercio mundial; identiciar potenciales estructuras centro-periféricas regionales; mostrar que la centralidad se distribuye de forma heterogénea, pero siempre concentrándose en pocos países; e identificar grupos de mayor y menor fortaleza en su integración comercial. Todos los resultados parecen describir adecuadamente la complejidad económica del comercio, mostrando que la metodología propuesta sería válida para brindar un sentido económico al comercio internacional visto como red.
Línea de investigación: Comercio Internacional
[Artículos ] The effects of integration agreements in Western Hemisphere trade, 1970–2014
Martin-Mayoral, Fernado; Morán Carofilis, Gabriela; Cajas Guijarro, John - The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 25:5, 724-756, DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2015.1125519.
The paper analyzes the effects of four regional integration agreements (Common Market of the South [MERCOSUR], Andean Community [ANCOM], Central American Common Market [CACM] and North America Free Trade Agreement [NAFTA]) on bilateral trade in 19 countries from the Western Hemisphere for the period 1970–2014. For this purpose we estimate different gravity models to control for trade creation and diversion, export diversification and intra-industry trade using OLS log-linearized gravity model and Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood panel data estimators that allow controlling for zero-value trade flows. We find trade creation for ANCOM, MERCOSUR and CACM and trade diversion for NAFTA and MERCOSUR countries. Export diversification negatively affects bilateral trade in all American agreements, while intra-industry trade has contributed to trade expansion in ANCOM and the opposite for NAFTA, MERCOSUR and CACM. Global supply chains may help us explain these results. Finally, we find anticipatory effects on trade several years before the signing of the agreements, but only NAFTA countries seem to be natural trading partners in the region while the rest of Latin American regional agreements have not resulted in a comprehensive, profound and consolidated common market.
Línea de investigación: Comercio Internacional
